In Texas, US, electricity demand is expected to grow because of rapid population growth, increased adoption of electric vehicles, expansion of AI data centres, and other societal and industrial developments. Most of Texas’ electricity system is managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates a grid that is largely independent from the rest of the United States. Combined with the state’s rapidly changing demand patterns, this makes Texas an important test case for exploring future energy scenarios.

In this work, the researchers developed a framework to model how different sources of electricity demand growth could affect the Texas grid through to 2050. They separately examined the impacts of population growth, electrified heating, electric vehicles, large industrial loads such as data centres, and electrification of oil and gas operations.

The study found that electric vehicles have the greatest impact on peak electricity demand because charging tends to occur at similar times of day, creating sharp increases in demand. In contrast, large industrial loads, including data centres, cryptocurrency mining, hydrogen production and manufacturing facilities, have the greatest impact on overall electricity consumption because they often operate continuously. Electrification of heating had a smaller net effect because heat pumps increase winter electricity demand while simultaneously reducing summer electricity demand through more efficient cooling.

The findings suggest that different types of demand growth require different grid solutions. Battery storage is particularly effective for managing the sharp demand peaks associated with electric vehicle charging, whereas growth from data centres and other large industrial loads is most economically met through additional natural gas, wind and solar generation. The study also showed that uncertainty in future demand could lead to dramatically different grid expansion requirements by 2050.

A key impact of this work is demonstrating that the source of future electricity demand can be just as important as its size, since different demand drivers require different investments in generation, storage and grid infrastructure. The framework developed in this study could help planners, investors and policymakers make more informed decisions about future electricity systems.

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How different power plant types contribute to electric grid reliability, resilience, and vulnerability: a comparative analytical framework by K Ramirez-Meyers et al. (2021)