Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and one of its largest economies, which puts enormous pressure on its electricity system. At the same time, the country has committed to reaching net‑zero emissions between 2050 and 2070. Today, Nigeria’s power sector is underpowered, unreliable for many citizens, and heavily dependent on fossil fuels and diesel generators, which are costly and polluting.

This study explores pathways for Nigeria to reach net‑zero emissions by 2050, 2060, and 2070, focusing on which technologies would be required. Across all scenarios, solar power becomes the backbone of the system, providing 37–55% of electricity by 2050 and remaining central in the two longer term scenarios. Nuclear power also plays a major role when allowed, but faces barriers such as high upfront costs, regulatory capacity, and public safety concerns. If nuclear is excluded, Nigeria must rely even more on solar and on gas with carbon capture and storage (gas-CCS).

Although transitioning to net‑zero requires significant upfront investment, the study finds that a clean electricity system is cheaper overall than continuing with fossil fuels, and earlier transitions do not significantly increase total costs.

The authors conclude that Nigeria should build a balanced clean‑energy mix (solar, hydro, nuclear, gas‑CCS), rapidly scale up solar deployment, strengthen institutions, mobilise international and private financing, and coordinate regionally to ensure a reliable, affordable, and achievable transition.

“Nigeria’s electricity transition is not only a climate challenge; it is also a development and reliability challenge. Our analysis shows that solar power will be central to any net-zero pathway, but achieving an affordable and dependable electricity system will require a diversified mix of clean technologies, stronger institutions, and sustained investment in the grid and supporting infrastructure.” – Dr Michael Dioha, Clean Air Task Force

Do you want to learn more about this topic?

The zero-emissions cost of energy: a policy concept Colin Beal and Carey King (2021)