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Business and innovation

Business and innovation

A question of timing

08 May 2019 James McKenzie
Taken from the May 2019 issue of Physics World.

Elon Musk’s involvement in commercial space flight and electric vehicles underlines why getting your timing right is vital in business, says James McKenzie

SpaceX Crew Dragon 2

I hope you didn’t miss the recent excitement surrounding the private US space company SpaceX. Back in March it launched a space capsule called Crew Dragon that docked with the International Space Station (ISS) and then returned to Earth. What made this mission so momentous – and for me had the real “wow factor” – was that the capsule was fired into space using a reusable launch rocket.

On any space mission, the launch rocket contains the main engines and most of the fuel needed to blast the satellite or capsule into space. Usually this first stage detaches from the rocket a few minutes after launch and returns unceremoniously to Earth, most often by crashing into the sea as scrap. With SpaceX’s rockets, however, the first stage is designed to make a controlled descent back to Earth – either landing on solid ground or on one of the company’s autonomous drone ships.

While the Crew Dragon capsule contained just a dummy astronaut, the mission proved that the commercial space sector is now firmly in the business of launching not just satellites, but people too.

SpaceX has been working on this technology since 2011 and what makes it good business sense is that it costs just a few million dollars to refurbish the launch rocket, whereas building one from scratch each time would be a whole lot more. Founded by the entrepreneur Elon Musk in 2002, SpaceX carried out 21 separate test launches in 2018. The odd booster rocket missed its landing spot, but hey, that’s all just part of getting a product debugged.

Perhaps the most notable mission that year took place on 6 February 2018 when the Falcon Heavy rocket blasted off. It can take 64 tonnes of kit into space – twice as much cargo as any other platform at apparently a third of the cost. But realizing it was risky to carry commercial cargo on a first launch, Musk decided to launch it with his own, personal cherry-red Tesla Roadster electric sports car.

Installed with a dummy astronaut at the wheel – named Starman after the 1972 David Bowie hit – the car was sent into an elliptical orbit beyond the orbit of Mars. Musk is a sometimes controversial figure, but I had to admire the sheer showmanship of this mission, especially when the car’s satnav screen showed the message DON’T PANIC in reference to the Douglas Adams novel The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.

In this particular SpaceX launch, the two orbital boosters landed elegantly side by side on the launch pad, showing that the firm’s reusable launch system has become a reality – obviously the way forward.

Electric dreams

Like many successful entrepreneurs, Musk, 47, has a history of getting his timing right. Having studied physics and business at the University of Pennsylvania, he began a PhD in applied physics at Stanford University in 1995, just as the Web was taking off. Musk dropped out after barely two days, co-founding Zip2, a Web software company that was bought by Compaq in 1999 for $340m. With the dot.com boom in full stride, Musk then set up X.com, an online bank that became PayPal and was bought by eBay for $1.5bn in 2002. By 2016 Forbes magazine had listed him as the world’s 21st most powerful person.

Musk’s success with electric vehicles (Tesla) has been another example of his good sense of timing. Electric cars aren’t a new idea of course. First prototyped in the 1830s, they came to prominence after the French physicist Gaston Planté invented the rechargeable lead–acid battery in 1859. Well-heeled customers, particularly in US cities, liked the fact that electric vehicles started easily, weren’t smelly or noisy, and didn’t require gears. Indeed, by the turn of the 20th century, 38% of all cars sold in the US were electric, with 40% being powered by steam and 22% by petrol – this was the first golden age of electric vehicles. But not being able to travel fast or far, electric vehicles dwindled in popularity, relegated to niche products like milk floats.

Musk, however, saw the growing viability of electric cars, driven by rising petrol prices, growing environmental concerns plus huge advances in battery technology and electric motors. In 2004 he began investing in Tesla Motors, which had been founded the previous year by the US engineers and entrepreneurs Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. With Musk as chair of the board, Tesla’s goal was to commercialize electric vehicles, starting with a premium sports car aimed at “early adopters” before moving into more mainstream vehicles.

In deciding to invest in Tesla, Musk realized that all the issues with electric vehicles – poor range, long charge time, lack of charging networks, high operating costs and low speeds – could and would be addressed through a manageable programme of technological development. In fact, I would say that Tesla – under Musk’s leadership – has changed how people think about electric cars.

The one remaining hurdle is that electric cars are expensive, although Tesla seems to be addressing that issue with its family-sized Model 3 car. However, for electric cars to truly become mainstream, a further step change is needed in cost that will probably require commercial and government help to deliver. It’s one reason why the UK government in 2017 announced a £250m, four-year Faraday Challenge investment in developing cheaper and better batteries for electric vehicles.

Timing, timing, timing

When it comes to commercial success, timing is all important. Great entrepreneurs, such as Musk, are like master surfers, waiting for the next big wave, which they usually catch perfectly. It requires a different mindset to everyone else, a level of determination and self-confidence to succeed that most people lack.

Not every great entrepreneurial idea works. And sometimes that self-confidence can backfire: Musk had to step down as Tesla chair in late-2018 as part of a fraud settlement with US authorities over his Tweets about the firm’s finances. Still, people like Musk are making physics and engineering really cool again. That’s one thing that’s inspiring and great to see.

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