Throughout the 20th century the prevailing assumption was that the solution to pollution is economic growth. The trajectories followed by many developed nations – from widespread poverty through heavily-polluting industrialization to clean technology and good standards of living – support this simplistic relationship. But recent decades have revealed that matters aren’t this straightforward. Now a study has reviewed the links between pollution and economic development and investigates ways to transition towards a more sustainable economy.
Between 1970 and 2006, GDP in the US, adjusted for inflation, grew by 195%. The number of cars and trucks in the country doubled and the total number of miles driven grew by 178%. In theory air pollution should have skyrocketed. Technological innovations and new regulations, however, led to significant decreases in emissions of carbon monoxide (by 37%), nitrogen oxides (30%), sulphur dioxide (52%), particulates (80%) and lead (98%).
This is a classic example of the inverted-U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve. It suggests that economic development initially leads to environmental degradation but once average income reaches a certain point, the curve undergoes a turning point and the environment improves as wages rise further.
A circular economy requires us to mimic biological cycles in terms of re-using waste materials from industrial processes
The environmental Kuznets curve is a compelling hypothesis but there are lots of exceptions to the rule. Take deforestation. On paper many developed countries have their tree-felling under control and back to sustainable levels. More often the reality is that imports increase, exporting the deforestation elsewhere.
To understand the connections between the environment and economic development in more depth, Saleem Ali from the University of Delaware, US, and Jose Puppim de Oliveira from the São Paulo and Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration, Brazil reviewed six fundamental models.
Recent studies have revealed flaws in the environmental Kuznets curve. Rather than being shaped like an upside-down U, it more commonly has an upward flick at the end that represents the renewed rise of pollution once the easiest pollution challenges have been tackled.
“The key take-home message is that there is no generic environmental Kuznets curve which can be used for policy-making,” says Ali, “and therefore pollution policy is better determined by monitoring and enforcement of standards that are based on the environmental and social impact of pollution.”
Sometimes technology can enable countries to “tunnel through” the environmental Kuznets curve
Sometimes technology enables countries to “tunnel through” the environmental Kuznets curve, avoiding the environmental degradation associated with the first phase of economic development. The paper industry, for example, traditionally relied on mercury for electrolysis but now tends to use a membrane cell process. As a result, many developing countries can avoid the burden of mercury pollution associated with mass paper production.
If we really want to achieve sustainability, the research suggests we should strive for a “circular economy”.
“A circular economy requires us to mimic biological cycles in terms of reusing waste materials from industrial processes,” says Ali. “It is compatible with economic growth but focuses on reused, re-manufacturerd and recycled material rather than virgin materials.”
Such an economy would need policies that make waste more economically useful and a redesign of manufacturing processes. Finland has taken a leading role in driving its economy towards a circular structure but there are potential negative consequences. In particular, as systems become more resource-efficient, prices start to drop, which can cause a “rebound effect” as people consume more.
“The increased consumption could lead to environmental concerns such as increased greenhouse gas emissions,” says Ali.
There are ways to improve human well-being, achieve sustainable development goals and have a healthy economy but the research to date suggests that keeping a circular economy on track needs constant evaluation and refinement.
Ali and Oliveira reported their review in Environmental Research Letters (ERL).
