A doubling of India’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound as the country powers its development through to 2030, according to analysts. Their assessment shows India could be on a path to meeting its Paris emissions intensity pledge thanks to a lower than expected demand for electricity and a faster transition from coal to renewables.
“Our work seeks to provide a collective interpretation … [of] widely disparate modelling projections for India’s future emissions,” says Navroz K. Dubash from the Centre for Policy Research, India.
If the group’s assessment holds, India’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy in 2030 will be less than half of China’s equivalent emissions in 2015, and per capita emissions will be lower than today’s global average.
There are, however, some important caveats, as the analysts point out. “Our assessment only covers a portion of India’s emissions — carbon dioxide from energy, which accounts for about two thirds of India’s emissions,” says Dubash. “The overall result will also depend on the rate of increase of the remaining third.”
The team did not take carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and land use changes into account due to the difficulty in finding comparable figures.
To generate their report, the researchers examined the outputs and assumptions of 15 scenarios taken from 7 major studies of India’s energy and environmental future, against a backdrop of recent policy directives and trends.
Development scenarios considered by the team predict that the rise in India’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from 2012 levels could be as low as 9% by 2030. At the other end of the scale, the highest prediction sees an increase of 169%.
Realistically, coal is still likely to feature heavily through to 2030, but a drop in the cost of solar and wind power could make an impact. Untangling the extent to which renewables will displace coal in India’s energy mix will be key to sharpening future projections.
Reference cases included in the study estimate that India could generate as much non-fossil fuel electricity by 2030 as the country generated from all sources in 2012. But despite all the information rolled into the analysis, the researchers are keen to know more.
“How India will build its cities, provide new jobs, and increase access to electricity and clean cooking energy are still open questions,” says Ankit Bhardwaj.
India’s energy policy landscape is evolving rapidly. Discussions include an expansion in high-profile LED lighting and appliance efficiency programmes as well as a stronger push towards electric vehicles in pursuit of improved air quality.
The team will be following developments closely both in India and elsewhere. “Our next steps are to engage with teams working in similar fast-changing contexts globally, especially in developing countries,” says Radhika Khosla.
The team, which also included Narasimha D. Rao, reported the findings in Environmental Research Letters (ERL).
