On Thursday 2nd May, the morning after the UK Parliament voted to declare a climate emergency, the Committee on Climate Change advised that the UK should completely eliminate net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
This would require dramatic changes across all sectors, including aviation, shipping and agriculture. While many cuts could be achieved with changes to technologies and fuels, around 60% would require some societal or behavioural changes.
“This can only be achieved if we pay attention to it throughout all the things we do at home, in our communities, the country, and internationally,” says Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London.
Nevertheless, the report stresses that net zero could be reached with existing technologies, such as batteries and renewables, as well as some more speculative options such as direct air capture or carbon-neutral synthetic fuels. “There are no unicorns here,” said Chris Stark, Chief Executive of the Committee on Climate Change at the report’s launch.
Net zero UK: green energy tech to the rescue?
Thanks to rapid technological improvements, the estimated cost of the transition is just 1-2% of GDP – the same as 80% reductions were expected to cost when that target was set out in 2008.
“It’s an important milestone,” says Josh Burke of the Grantham Research Institute at LSE, “but it’s what should be expected of the UK given our legacy as a highly polluting country in the past.”
Established in 2008, the UK Committee on Climate Change advises the UK government on targets for cutting emissions. Its new report advises that net zero emissions can and should be achieved by the middle of the century for all greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide.
Policy pick
Policies the Net Zero report calls for include:
- a supply of low-carbon electricity, which will need to quadruple by 2050
- efficient buildings and low-carbon heating throughout the UK’s building stock
- electric vehicles as the only option from 2035 or earlier
- developing carbon capture and storage technology and low-carbon hydrogen as a necessity not an option
- stopping biodegradable waste going to landfill
- phasing-out potent fluorinated gases
- increasing tree planting
- reducing emissions on farms
Peak concern?
The report arrives as concern for the environment is peaking. Climate strikes have seen tens of thousands of young people taking to the streets, while Extinction Rebellion protests have brought disruption – and over one thousand arrests – to London. Coupled with a recent primetime television documentary presented by David Attenborough, mentions of climate change in the media have been at near-record levels.
The call from the Committee on Climate Change follows last year’s special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). That report made clear that limiting warming to 1.5 ˚C – an aim of the Paris Agreement – would reduce impacts from extreme weather events, agricultural disruption and species loss.
With warming already at around 1 ˚C, this 1.5 ˚C goal would require global carbon dioxide emissions to fall to net zero by the middle of the century, with other greenhouse gases following in 2070. Aiming for net zero greenhouse gas emissions ahead of this date “shows a level of ambition”, says Burke. However, Rogelj, who was a coordinating lead author on the IPCC report, points out that rich nations could do even more “by supporting developing countries with technologies, know-how, and funding”.
Despite the CCC report’s ambitious proposal, the UK is struggling with the targets it has already set. Electricity generation has decarbonised rapidly and by 2025 half of the UK’s electricity is set to come from renewable sources. But with other emissions sources such as heating and transport seeing little change, the UK is currently on course to miss its legally binding 2030 targets by as much as 20%.
“It is important that the UK walks the talk and ensures that its ambition is translated into effective action,” says Rogelj.
- View the presentation by Chris Stark that accompanied the report.
