Black carbon particles released by rocket launches remain in the upper atmosphere for much longer than sooty particles produced by sources on the ground. This finding, which comes from a study led by researchers at University College London (UCL), UK, suggests that the soot created in deploying “megaconstellations” containing hundreds or thousands of satellites could have poorly understood and potentially serious consequences for the Earth’s climate.
“Rocket launches are a unique source of pollution, injecting harmful chemicals directly into the upper layers of the atmosphere and contaminating Earth’s last remaining relatively pristine environment,” says the study’s lead author, UCL atmospheric chemist Connor Barker.
The number of rockets being launched into space has increased dramatically since 2019, and the trend shows few signs of stopping. This year has already seen more launches than the whole of 2020, and space industry experts believe the eventual total could surpass 2025’s figure of 329. The increase has primarily been driven by the Falcon 9 rockets launched by the US firm SpaceX, though China also logged a record 92 launch attempts in 2025.
“An unregulated geoengineering experiment”
In the new work, Barker and colleagues analysed data from rocket launches and satellite re-entries from 2020 to 2022. Their results, which they detail in Earth’s Future, show that the soot particles lingering in the upper atmosphere are 540 times more effective at altering climate than ground-based soot emissions from sources such as cars and power plants.
“Space industry pollution is like an unregulated geoengineering experiment,” says Barker. Soot particles from burning kerosene in rocket fuel absorb sunlight, he explains, which prevents it from reaching the Earth’s surface. The result is a small cooling effect, which might sound like a good thing in the context of rising global temperatures. However, Barker stresses that this cooling is minimal compared to the global warming caused by other human-generated emissions, while the particles themselves could have “many other serious unintended consequences”.
Predictions likely to underestimate future impact
As well as quantifying recent space industry emissions, the researchers make predictions about future ones. According to their calculations, by 2029 the space industry will be releasing about 870 tonnes of soot into the atmosphere each year. By way of comparison, Baker notes that according to the latest UK government figures, the annual emissions of the country’s entire passenger car fleet amounted to just 728 tonnes.
The team based its predictions on projections of data from 2020-2022, which is considered the beginning of the megaconstellation satellite era. Because of this, Barker cautions that they are likely to be underestimates, making the problem even more urgent. “It is critical that we understand the environmental impacts of satellite megaconstellations now while their impact is small, before any unforeseen consequences are difficult to reverse or repair,” he tells Physics World.
Rocket re-entry pollutes the upper atmosphere
While scientists have made great progress in the last few years, Baker says that are still large uncertainties in our emission estimates for the industry and our understanding of how they affect the atmosphere. “We hope that this work spurs further research to measure space industry emissions and highlights the need to regulate the geoengineering impacts of the space industry,” he says.
Team leader Eloise Marais, a professor of atmospheric chemistry and air quality at UCL, echoes this sentiment. “So far, there has been limited effort to effectively regulate this type of pollution,” she says.
The researchers are now working on an emissions tracker to visualize these emissions across the entire space age. “We are also using satellite imagery to remotely detect and quantify rocket launch emissions,” Barker reveals.
