Fancy a flutter on the Higgs?

Comments (4)

• 1 Dileep Sathe Dec 2, 2009 2:53 PM

  It is better not to have bets on possible scientific discoveries / inventions - otherwise there can be the danger of malpractices creeping in.

• 2 Hamish Johnston Dec 2, 2009 3:17 PM

  I had that very thought.

  On his website, however, Unzicker seem to say that intrade will accept bets from those with insider information -- that is people working on the LHC.

  Hamish

• 3 Cormac O'Raifeartaigh Dec 6, 2009 9:02 PM

  Interesting post, but there's something odd about the Unzicker website. He seems to have misunderstood the basic purpose of the LHC: it is not to'find' the Higgs, but to verify whether or not the particle exists at the energies expected. There is an important difference - a null result would also be a significant find as it would force a rethink of the SM.
  Unzicker also compares the possible observation of supersymmetry to that of black holes, making one wonder whether he is a bona fide physicist.
  Finally, I left the comment above on the discussion board of the Unzicker website but it has been pulled which is rather odd...

• 4 Alexander Jan 10, 2010 10:29 PM

  Insiders or not, the discovery of the Higgs boson is considered unlikely.
  The long-term estimate (detection until the end of 2013) is actually
  traded below 50 percent at prediction markets. Quite a poor performance
  for the most important thing to be found in the LHC...

  See

  www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=higgs

  and

  www.Bet-On-The-Higgs.com